Fabian Bohnenberger

Vote-counting, the ability to accurately predict how every lawmaker is going to vote on a particular motion or piece of legislation, is a hard skill to master. It is particularly difficult in the European Parliament, with its vast palette of political colours and national interests. But to secure her re-election on 18 July, Commission President von der Leyen needs that rare skill now more than anything – her count of supporters has to be right, there are no do-overs.

Von der Leyen needs 361 votes – half of the total number of MEPs plus one – to be re-elected. Because the mainstream parties that confirmed her in 2019 lost seats in the recent election, it is now harder to reach this majority with confidence. Her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and liberal Renew, which together elected von der Leyen in 2019, now account for 401 seats (188 EPP, 136 S&D, 77 Renew).

This is too close for comfort. The ballot to elect the Commission President is secret, which makes it easy for detractors to withhold their support – they do not have to fear consequences from their political groups. Attrition of up to 15 percent is common and a few MEPs from each group have already announced that they won’t support von der Leyen. In her confirmation vote in 2019, she barely scraped by, receiving 383 votes. (374 votes were needed then, but EPP, S&D and Renew together had 444 seats.)

Adding pressure, there are no do-overs. If von der Leyen does not get the numbers right at the first vote, she cannot make concessions and try again. The nominated candidate has one attempt at confirmation, and only one. Article 17(7) of the Treaty on European Union explains that if Parliament does not elect her, the European Council needs to select a new candidate:

7. Taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose to the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members. If he does not obtain the required majority, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall within one month propose a new candidate who shall be elected by the European Parliament following the same procedure.

Adding to the challenge, von der Leyen’s team had just a few weeks to get to know many of the new MEPs and examine their political views and previous voting records (if they exist). Turnover in parliament is high; new MEPs usually make up more than half of its members.

With so many unknown quantities and so little margin for error, it is tempting to look for additional support.

Early signs that von der Leyen has been weighing a deal with the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which includes the party of Italian Prime Minister Meloni, stirred controversy. Both S&D and Renew have repeatedly warned against any join-up with the far-right – be it the ECR (78 seats) or the new Patriots for Europe group (84 seats).

This means an official deal with the far-right risks more votes from the centre than it would likely gain at the right fringe; von der Leyen isn’t exactly popular with many of their members anyway. For example, it is hard to imagine that the 20 MEPs of the Polish PiS party, which are part of ECR, would vote for her. Then again, no one can stop far-right MEPs from supporting von der Leyen. It is a secret vote, after all.

The obvious move to bolster numbers are the Greens. They lost significantly in the elections (down to 53 seats from 74), so can’t offer the same support. They also did not vote for von der Leyen in 2019, but have shown much greater willingness to negotiate this time around.

A robust majority will come down to the political price the Greens demand, and whether von der Leyen can pay it while retaining support from (all parts of) her own group. Given the diverging views on key issues, this is a delicate political balancing act. A core question for the Greens is how she calibrates the two ambitions of the Green Deal and EU competitiveness. If she can merge these into a coherent vision of sustainable competitiveness for Europe, she’s likely to get the numbers to be re-elected.

Returning to the overall challenge, however, this is now less about making formal agreements with political groups or even national parties but requires convincing individual MEPs to vote for you. With only one attempt, her count needs to be right – and it’s always tempting to attribute more votes to your side than actually exist.

Picture credit: CC-BY-4.0: © European Union 2023– Source: EP