Fabian Bohnenberger

What are the EU’s political priorities for the next five years? EU leaders are about to sign off the Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 at the next European Council meeting on 27 June. While the final text remains to be agreed, two leaked drafts provide a good indication of the EU’s direction of travel.

The Strategic Agenda is the EU’s high-level political roadmap, defined by the heads of state and government of the Member States. The Agenda is intended to influence the new Commission President, who – once (re)nominated by EU leaders – will set out her Political Guidelines for the next mandate. I explain the origins and significance of the Strategic Agenda here.

There is a stark difference between the new draft Agenda and the previous version. The 2019-2024 Agenda spearheaded the ambitious green and digital transitions, putting the fundamental transformation of the EU economy and society to achieve climate neutrality at the heart of the European project.

By contrast, the new draft is more sombre and focused on the EU’s response to external threats. It calls for strengthening the Union’s competitiveness, sovereignty, and defences because “[t]he world around us has become more confrontational, transactional and uncertain.”

I discuss the three main themes in turn.

1. A free and democratic Europe

This is by far the shortest section – no surprise given disagreements between Member States on the respect of the rule of law (Hungary) or media freedom (Italy). The subheading “Upholding the Rule of Law” in the April draft now more ambiguously reads “Upholding European values within the Union”. However, the text still includes the commitment to “promote and safeguard the respect of the rule of law which is the basis of European cooperation” – although this language could, of course, be stronger.

2. A strong and secure Europe

As usual, the EU’s objectives for external action remain quite vague. According to the current draft, the EU plans to assert its “sovereignty and its place as a strategic global player in the new multipolar geopolitical context.” (This goal does not sound so different from the previous Agenda: “the EU needs to pursue a strategic course of action and increase its capacity to act autonomously to safeguard its interests”.)

However, Ukraine gets its own sentence this time: “The European Union will stand by Ukraine in its legitimate defence, its reconstruction and pursuit of a just peace.” This wasn’t part of the April draft, but shouldn’t be a surprise either.

The longest subsection is dedicated to strengthening security and defence. The key aim: “urgently improve conditions for scaling up the European defence industry by creating a better integrated European defence market, promoting joint procurement and flagship projects of common interest.” This also includes increasing preparedness and crisis response capacities (including to natural disasters, health emergencies, cyber and hybrid warfare, foreign manipulation and interference).

Compared to the previous Agenda, EU enlargement is framed much more ambitiously as “a geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity.” The draft declares “there is new dynamism in the enlargement process” and dangles addition incentives, noting that the EU “will use all possibilities for the gradual integration” of candidates.

While linked to the enlargement question, EU governance reforms – always difficult – get only a vague nod. The EU “will undertake the necessary internal reforms to ensure that our policies are fit for the future and financed in a sustainable manner and that the EU institutions continue to function effectively.”

Migration features prominently, likely because of Italy’s interest in the topic and upcoming implementation challenges of the newly-agreed Migration Pact. This is expressed as the “responsibility to effectively protect the EU’s external borders and counter irregular migration and its instrumentalization”, including by addressing root causes, cooperation with transit countries, work on returns and fighting smuggling networks.

3. A prosperous and competitive Europe

Bolstering EU competitiveness takes centre stage. The draft still calls to “harness the potential of the green and digital transitions”, introduced in the last Agenda, but the focus has shifted noticeably. Even the aim of the EU’s climate transition is now presented as “staying competitive globally and increasing our energy sovereignty.” Think Russia, China (and the US).

Compared to the last Agenda, the list of economic policy goals is no longer mostly inward-looking. Although the draft repeats plans to further develop the Single Market, ensure a “balanced” state aid policy (given worries about deep-pocketed Germany), and to complete the Banking Union and the Capital Markets Union (see the recent Letta and upcoming Draghi reports), external threats now feature much more prominently.

The draft calls on the EU to “strengthen our economic security and reduce harmful dependencies”, diversify and secure strategic supply chains, and “increase our sovereignty in strategic sectors” (particularly defence, space, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, 5G/6G, health, biotechnologies, net-zero technologies, mobility, chemicals and advanced materials). The latter seems to broaden the concept of digital sovereignty championed by France and included in the previous Agenda.

The draft also includes stronger language on trade and protecting the EU market, although the number of adjectives needed to define EU trade policy keeps multiplying – it calls for “an ambitious, robust, open and sustainable trade policy”. This pile of attributes reflects Member States’ diverging visions for EU trade. If not complex enough, EU leaders added a call to “safeguard fair competition, fight unfair practices, promote reciprocity and ensure a level playing field both internally and globally.”

Further addressing the EU’s economic (and social) woes, the draft also commits to “ambitiously reduce the bureaucratic burden” (as von der Leyen already promised), “invest in people’s skills and education throughout their lives” (again, already part of Commission agenda), and “increasing participation in the labour market.”

4. What is missing?

Clear language on the EU budget, for example. From the green transition to emerging technologies and defence (“we will invest substantially more and better together”), all will be expensive. The Agenda stresses the need to mobilise both public and private funding, including through the European Investment Bank. But precisely who’ll pay for all of this has yet to be settled.